The Aftermath of The Brussels Attacks.

There are dozens dead, more than one-hundred people wounded in Brussels this morning, victims of a bomb attack against the airport and at a metro station. The airport attack came before security…outside the desk for American Airlines. (I do not believe this was a coincidence.)

The blast before security is especially troubling. How do you police this at airports around the world? There was a suicide bombing at a Moscow airport in the arrivals area a few years back. Both areas are typically chaotic, with people coming and going, wheeling luggage, searching for passports and signage. This is the softest of targets.

So are subway systems. They are designed–security-wise–to keep people from not paying. They are not designed to keep out terrorists. London’s subway system has some of the best security around with cameras everywhere but they have been hit in the past.

People+chaos=opportunity for terrorists.

I predict this will fuel the xenophobia that gives the Trump campaign lift. I predict other European countries will consider re-instituting border controls and even talking about walls. I predict it will be easy to get a cheap flight this spring and summer as people hunker down at home. I predict fear will rule, at least short term. I predict the far right in Europe will gain more support. I predict more copycat attacks. I predict ISIS will celebrate a propaganda victory. I predict a Syrian peace agreement will be rubber stamped very quickly and Assad left in power as the world will avert its eyes.

I hope I’m wrong.

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